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December 16, 2022 With another good CPI report in the hopper, the market continued the relief rally it started when the October CPI report was released. There was plenty of good news on the inflation front, month over month was only up 0.1% and Ex Food and Energy was up only

December 9, 2022 The bond market can be a pretty good forecaster. Looking back over the last 50 years, it’s been very good at forecasting recessions.  The track record? Seven for seven. And the crystal ball it uses to do this prediction? The yield curve, specifically an inversion of the yield curve.  The

December 2, 2022 Is the Fed finally Relenting? In a speech at the Brookings Institute, Chairman Powell laid out the Central Banks’ current thinking on the economy, rates and the path forward. In the speech, littered with caveats, the Chairman said what the market expected, and needed. The Fed is thinking of relenting. After

November 4, 2022 Wednesday afternoon the Fed Statement came out and it seemed, reading between the lines, that perhaps the Fed was changing their tune (Dare we say, Relenting?). As the market breathed a sigh of relief, the press conference started, and we found out Chairman Powell and the Fed are

October 28, 2022 The fixed income markets are abuzz with the potential of a Fed Pivot, or the idea the Fed might change from hiking to pausing to cutting. We say, will the Fed just relent? The Fed, focusing on not repeating the mistakes of the 70’s, is quickly raising rates to a

October 14, 2022 It’s an old saying and it’s hard to refute. Can you have your cake and eat it too? Sometimes in the fixed income markets, the answer is yes you can. Each day, the market shifts, rates change, and laws and regulations get passed. While these changes present challenges to some,

October 7, 2022 https://genoaam.s3.amazonaws.com/Channeling+Their+Inner+Volcker+10-7-22.mp3 Paul Volcker was Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 1979 through 1987. He and his board are widely credited with curbing the high rate of inflation in the late 70’s and early 80’s. He accomplished this by raising the overnight fed funds rate to a

September 20, 2022 https://genoaam.s3.amazonaws.com/All+Quiet+9-19-22.mp3 The home of the Federal Reserve Bank is on Constitution Avenue in Washington, DC. That’s just a few blocks away from our headquarters so we speak from experience when we say: As the Fed considers a historic third 75 basis point increase, it’s quiet on Constitution Avenue. FOMC

September 9, 2022 Let me start by expressing our condolences to the Royal Family and the English people for the loss of their monarch, Queen Elizabeth II. She oversaw tremendous change during her 70-year reign, much of it brought on by major discoveries in physics, chemistry and technology. Consider the impact of

September 2, 2022 Short and to the point. That’s how Chairman Powell’s annual speech was described. Not known for his brevity, and expected to speak for thirty minutes, the Chairman spoke for a little over eight minutes and the message was clear. Expect higher rates, for a longer period, potentially causing economic