Weekly Update

September 15, 2023 Okay so the 1974 PR effort by President Ford was considered to be one of the biggest government public relations blunders ever, but perhaps it has application now? As the FOMC gathers next week to decide whether to raise, pause or hold; we say: Whip Inflation Now!   This

August 18, 2023 It’s Jackson Hole week, the annual Fed symposium that ends with a speech from Fed Chair Powell. Since the last FOMC meeting, July 26th, the 10-year yield has risen 39 basis points and the 2-year yield has risen 8 basis points, causing the yield curve to bear steepen. Add

August 4, 2023 The consensus is in, we are heading for a soft landing. But someone forgot to tell the bond market. If we are heading for a soft landing, aka All Set no recession, how does the currently inverted curve, un-invert? Typically, long US Treasury rates are higher than short

July 28, 2023 A dovish Fed meeting, a solid GDP report and an encouraging PCE report all supported the soft-landing scenario. However, fixed income markets responded negatively as investors realized just how long rates may stay high and what that might mean for the curve. Wednesday the FOMC raised the

July 14, 2023 The recent CPI and PPI reports increased the potential for a soft landing for the US Economy. This is good news, job losses, company defaults and market turmoil should be avoided, if it’s possible. But the FOMC remains steadfast in their determination to fight the inflation they see in

June 30, 2023 Markets moved aggressively this week. Positive revisions to first quarter GDP cleared the deck for the additional FOMC overnight rate increases that Fed speakers were signaling in their speeches. But is the economy really growing that fast, today? Friday’s release of the PCE report and earnings guidance from key industries

June 22, 2023 The FOMC held their meeting last week. From that we have a press release, press conference various speeches and congressional testimony. The overriding theme has been: Higher rates for longer (Note, we are back to Higher). But didn’t the FOMC just pause? If they are so worried to get inflation down

June 9, 2023 The great funding has started. The US Treasury is rebuilding the Treasury General Account (TGA, The checking account at the Fed) by some estimates as much as $1 trillion. So where is that money going to come from, what is the potential impact and are there any opportunities? This

Jun 2, 2023 After all the rhetoric, all the hand wringing and all the sound bites, the House and the Senate passed the debt ceiling suspension. Just a commentary on the voting: The final tally for the House vote was 314 to 117. The tally for the Senate vote was 63 to

May 8, 2023 We are changing things up this week. We issued a full analysis of the debt ceiling, how it came to be and potential outcomes. You can find it at: https://www.ustreasuryetf.com or Click Here to get the PDF directly. We continue to encourage advisors, clients and partners to